How to invest in the most uncertain time ever

If you turn on the news, scroll through social media, or even chat with friends, it’s easy to believe we’re living in one of the most uncertain periods in history. Markets are volatile, interest rates are shifting, global conflicts dominate headlines, and economic fears loom. But is this truly the most uncertain time ever? Or does it just feel that way because we’re living through it?

History tells us something important: Every era feels like the most uncertain when you’re in it. Investors in the 1970s faced oil shocks and runaway inflation. The early 2000s brought the dot-com bust and 9/11. The 2008 financial crisis was a true moment of global economic fear. And yet, markets recovered. Economies adapted. Long-term investors who stayed the course were rewarded.

The reality is that markets are forward-looking—they absorb and price in uncertainty quickly. Everything we know about markets today is already reflected in stock prices, often within minutes or even seconds. If a trade war seems likely, for example, that risk is already priced into the market.

It’s tempting to believe that if we see trouble ahead, we can sidestep it by going to cash. But then, when do you get back in? The best returns often happen after the worst markets. Recoveries are messy, volatile, and unpredictable. Investors often wait for stability before jumping back in—but by then, markets have already rebounded. The 10 best days in the market typically happen during turbulent periods, when things seem most uncertain. If you miss just those 10 days, your long-term return is significantly reduced. Trust me, I’ve witnessed it many times over—you think you’d be the person buying more during events like the 2008 financial crisis, until you’re faced with it.

Morgan Housel, in The Psychology of Money, argues that uncertainty is the price of admission for investing. If markets were predictable and risk-free, there would be no return. The discomfort we feel in uncertain times is exactly why long-term investing pays off.

Carl Richards, author of The Behavior Gap, would tell us that uncertainty isn’t a reason to abandon a plan—it’s a reason to stick to it. Reacting emotionally often leads to costly mistakes, while staying disciplined allows investors to benefit from the long-term upward trajectory of markets.

The urge to do something when faced with uncertainty is deeply human. If you touch something hot, you instinctively pull your hand away. That same evolutionary reaction drives the impulse to sell investments before a trade war or economic downturn. But while it makes sense to avoid burning your hand, that instinct won’t help you reach your long-term financial goals any faster. In fact, it does the opposite.

So, what’s the right move?

1. Recognize that uncertainty is normal. Every period feels like the most uncertain, but history shows that there have been countless periods that were the “most uncertain”, yet economies and markets adapted and continued to provide long-term returns.
2. Diversification. Evidence-based investing—grounded in broad diversification, disciplined asset allocation, and a long-term perspective—works. I’d love to tell you there’s some fancy way to navigate these periods, some magical investment that will get you through unscathed. When I have these discussions with clients, I can feel them wanting me to tell them there’s something they can do. Just remember, the choice to take no action is still an action in this case.
3. Ensure your investments align with your risk tolerance. The key to staying invested through uncertainty is having a portfolio that accounts for your ability to handle market swings. A well-structured portfolio should allow you to remain confident in both good and bad times.

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Yes, today feels uncertain. It will again in the future. But history is clear: those who stay disciplined and embrace uncertainty as part of the process are the ones who come out ahead.

This information has been prepared by Brandt Butt who is an Investment Advisor and Portfolio Manager for iA Private Wealth Inc. and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of iA Private Wealth. The information contained in this newsletter comes from sources we believe reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or reliability. The opinions expressed are based on an analysis and interpretation dating from the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, they do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned. The information contained herein may not apply to all types of investors. The Investment Advisor can open accounts only in the provinces in which they are registered.

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